La Liga, Test Cricket, F1— Sports is back!!
W.T…Finance — a single unbiased source for financial signals which matter to you.
Best news of the week that sports are back.
Why Sports is so intriguing is that it is the only place where effort, skill and luck intersect to create drama each time.
And out of these three elements, luck is probably the most interesting one.
And which better place than Casino to check luck.
Do you know in Casino which game you have the worst chance of winning?
BlackJack
Roulette
Slots
Wheel of Fortune
Keep Scrolling for answer
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The lucky ones for the week
Marc Andreessen writes about 4 kinds of luck. True for both business and investing
Chance I is completely impersonal; you can't influence it.
Chance II favors those who have a persistent curiosity about many things coupled with an energetic willingness to experiment and explore.
Chance III favors those who have a sufficient background of sound knowledge plus special abilities in observing, remembering, recalling, and quickly forming significant new associations.
Chance IV favors those with distinctive, if not eccentric hobbies, personal lifestyles, and motor behaviors.
Warren : I could expand on that question, but I couldn’t answer it. Charlie and I haven’t the faintest idea where it goes next week, next month or next year. We are not in that business. It isn’t our game.
Charlie: Nothing to add.
Warren: He’s been practicing for weeks. [laughter]
How to get lucky: 13 techniques: A classic available on Amazon for just Rs. 75
A peculiar characteristic of the genuinely lucky – at least it seems peculiar until you analyze it – is that they so often appear pessimistic. But it isn’t pessimism; it is only run cutting. It is a rational approach to a world of unpredictable, uncontrollable events.
Third Base: Scott Galloway uses baseball as a reference to explain the role of luck in real life
Conflating luck and talent is dangerous. As I get older, I’m struck by how big a part luck played in my life, and how much I mistook it for skill, well into my forties. The Pareto principle shows that even if competence is evenly distributed, 80% of effects stem from 20% of the causes.
Quiz Answer:
The answer is a slot machine with odds as low as 1 in 49,836,032!!
So while the slots can be played with cents you need to spend a lot of them to hit this.
When Investing - What Matters More Skills or Luck?
This is an old but seminal article by Michael J. Mauboussin on luck and its role in investing.
Key Points:
We tend to underestimate role of luck especially in investing and sports
It's useful to take a step back to consider why betting on continued success doesn't work in investing.
It certainly works in many other fields. For instance, you can count on the best chess players, sprinters or pianists to continue to perform at a high level for their next match, race or concert. In these activities, results correlate highly with skill, and luck plays little or no role.
But luck plays a huge role in determining results in investing, especially in the short term.
The paradox of Skill: The more skilful we become more role of luck increases
The reason luck is so important in investing is not because investors are not skillful in the aggregate. It's actually the opposite. Investors are collectively pretty efficient at incorporating information into stock prices, which suggests that only new information moves stocks. I call this the "paradox of skill." As skill improves it tends to become more uniform, which means that luck becomes more decisive in determining results.
How to choose the best mutual fund or investment?
The answer is to focus on process. When luck is involved, a correct decision leads to a good outcome only with some probability. Play your hand perfectly at the blackjack table and you still may lose because of the bad turn of a card. It's also true that a poor process can yield a favorable outcome by dint of luck. But a good process provides the highest probability of success over time.
What we wrote:
A snapshot of what we wrote across mediums
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